Two out of the 12 independents elected in the 1st round represent the Bloc for a Flourishing Gagauzia in a Revived Moldova (FGRMB), which includes the PCRM, while another 4 represent the United Gagauzia Movement (UGM). Others are either affiliated to Comrat Mayor Nicolae Dudoglo, or unaffiliated. Should pre-electoral agreements on constitution of alliances be respected, the results after the 1st round of the elections will be the following:
- 6 ICs;
- 5 FGRMB representatives;
- 4 UGM representatives;
- 2 DPM representatives;
- 1 RM representative.
In the runoff voting the assignment of candidates in terms of coalition membership is the following:
- 14 ICs;
- 11 FGRMB members;
- 5 UGM members;
- 2 RM members;
- 1 SPM member;
- 1 APM member.
Given the results of the 1st round, the distribution of mandates in the runoff voting may be the following:
- 7 out of 14 ICs;
- 6 out of 11 FGRMB candidates;
- 4 out of 5 UGM candidates;
- 0 out of 2 RM candidates;
- 0 out of 1 SPM candidates;
- 0 out of 1 APM candidates.
Hypothetically, the final distribution could be as follows:
- 6+7=13 ICs;
- 5+6=11 FGRMB representatives;
- 4+4=8 UGM representatives;
- 2+0=2 DPM representatives;
- 1+0=1 RM representatives.
The key conclusion is that the main rivals UGM and FGRMB will have almost the same share in the new People’s Assembly, so that they will have to call on support of the independents in order to incline the balance in their favour. Independents that support Comrat Mayor Nicolae Dudoglo, could count approximately 5–6 persons. There are rumours that Dudoglo could bid for the speaker post and the group which will accept to cede him this office could attract him on its side. The Ravnopravye Movement representative most probably could join the UGM. It is hard to forecast the way 5–6 other independents, not affiliated to Dudoglo, and DPM representatives will act. The following could be the situation:
- A majority could be built around UGM to support Governor Mihail Formuzal. The speaker office in Dudoglo’s favour could be the price of such a solution. However, later on problems could arise because of interpersonal relations between Dudoglo and Formuzal;
- A relatively stable majority could be built around FGRMB to oppose Governor Mihail Formuzal. The price is the same — the speaker office for Dudoglo. But this solution is very risky for the Gagauz autonomy’s stability;
- An ad-hoc majority could be created as well but it would undermine the possibility of a coherent activity of executive and legislative bodies in the Gagauz autonomy.