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Preparations to resume “5+2” consultations

Sergei Gubarev, a special envoy of the Russian Foreign Ministry in the Moldovan-Transnistrian negotiation process, visited Tiraspol on August 17, 2011. The purpose of the visit was to make clear the position of the Transnistrian side prior to the September-scheduled second round of the informal “5+2” meeting in Moscow. The Russian diplomat and Transnistrian foreign minister Vladimir Yastrebchyak discussed evolution in Tiraspol-Chisinau relations from perspective of an eventual development of the dialogue between the sides. The conclusion of the Russian diplomat was that an agreement between Chisinau and Tiraspol is difficult so far. Anyway, the Russian diplomacy will insist on an agreement regarding solutions to the Transnistrian conflict. However, the parties feel the situation differently. Even more, Moscow is ready to seek the institutionalisation of the “5+2 consultations but within reasonable limits… We are dealing with this issue for a result, rather than for the sake of the process. Regretfully, it is hard to get a practical result in the informal format. We do not have an appropriate instrument. And formal negotiations are such a tool.”

In his turn, Vladimir Yastrebchyak assured that the resumption of the official “5+2” negotiations would make any sense just in case they can produce concrete results. However, it is hard to speak about prospects of resuming the official “5+2” negotiations without accepting an equal footing for the parties, without “removing existing barriers, formulating a clear working agenda, and establishing accurate rules of the game, including principles to develop a dialogue.” The head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova, Mr. Philip Remler, has also met Vladimir Yastrebchyak in Tiraspol and received details regarding the position of the Transnistrian side.

Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov stated in an interview on August 31:

• “The position of Transnistria is unchanged prior to the September-scheduled second round of the informal «5+2» meeting in Moscow.”
• Transnistria is ready for negotiations, but its people must decide the future of Transnistria, the way the Moldovan people decides its future. However, Tiraspol does not have anybody to negotiate in Moldova for already two years. “What kind of society is this since for already two years it failed to elect a chief of state? We have 1,030 parties and social movements, but the society is not divided in terms of state leadership. As for Moldova, one side of society wants to join Europe and another focuses on the East”;
• The position of Tiraspol is based on constitution and the September 17, 2006 referendum on association with Russia;
• Transnistria will keep building its own system by harmonising it with the Russian legislation in all fields;
• Tiraspolul could introduce economic sanctions for Moldova, as Chisinau holds an economic blockade and Transnistria-based enterprises have to operate in these conditions;
• Tiraspol addressed a letter to Russian Premier Vladimir Putin and asked him to accept Transnistria as observer in the Russia-Belarus-Kazakhstan Customs Union.

Smirnov faces pressures prior to presidential electoral campaign

Preparations for the presidential elections in Transnistria set for December 11, 2011 are at height. The People’s Union was established during a congress in late August to “develop and strengthen the statehood of the Transnistrian Moldovan Republic (TMR), ensure the security of the country against internal and external dangers, preserve and develop the single historical community of the Transnistrian nation.” The movement is build after the model of the recent Russian People’s Front and brings together 15 public patriotic organisations: Union of TMR Defenders; “Memoria”; United Council Staffs, Transnistrian Union of Afghan War Veterans, Union of Transnistrian Women, etc. The congress elected the chairman of the Union of Transnistria Defenders, Igor Dudkevich, as leader of the central coordinating council of the movement. Delegates asked Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov to run for a new presidential mandate. On the other hand, Smirnov’s opponents from the Transnistrian region released statistics to reveal effects of the 21-year rule of Smirnov:

• Smirnov’s clan maintains the control on the region, producing corruption and driving people to desperation on background of deepening economic crisis.
• Budgets with deficits between 40 and 60 percent are annually adopted and are covered from Russian resources, which representatives of Smirnov’s clan embezzle;
• The trade balance deficit is on the permanent rise. Transnistria-based businesses exported goods worth 346 million dollars in January-July 2011 (by 5 percent less than last year), while imports of goods increased three fold, up to 902.67 million dollars (by 21 percent more than last year). In consequence, the trade balance deficit doubled and exceeded 556.5 million dollars;
• Prices go up at full tilt. Prices of goods and services increased by 11.35 percent on average in Transnistria in January-June 2011. Prices of manufactured goods increased the most, by 14 percent, and prices of food products rose by 9 percent;
• Transnistria’s debt for gas amounts to 2.7 billion dollars;
• Difficult social condition and dispersed population have a major impact on demographical situation. Transnistria’s population decreased by about 25 percent during Smirnov’s rule. The population in Transnistria declined by 1,549 people this year, as of early August. The infantile death rate is on the permanent rise, by 16.1 percent more than in the similar period of 2010.

In these circumstances, the head of the Supreme Soviet of Transnistria, Anatoli Kaminsky, a major political rival of Smirnov, is competing to substitute Smirnov in Moscow’s graces. Last July Kaminsky met highest-ranking functionaries from Russia, gaining the open support of the ruling Russian party Yedinaya Rossia. On background of criticism against Smirnov’s clan for embezzlement of very large amounts of the Russian support, Kaminsky came back from Moscow to bring the “good news” that Russia provides a new assistance of about 200 million roubles (about 70 million dollars) to Transnistria, and will keep assisting the region in future under guarantees of the Supreme Soviet of Transnistria that the funds will be spent accordingly to destination and as part of the Transnistria Development Strategy until 2025, which the Supreme Soviet worked out together with the Russian State Duma.

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