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Transnistrian Conflict on September 1–30, 2011

Transnistria gets ready for elections

Although presidential elections in Transnistria are scheduled for December 11, 2011, the key protagonists have been identified long ago: Igor Smirnov, who has plans to run for the fifth mandate; Yevgeni Shevchyuk, former chairman of the Supreme Soviet and major party Obnovlenye; Anatoliy Kaminskiy, head of the Supreme Soviet and Obnovlenye leader.

The registration of candidates opened on September 11 and other more or less known candidates will be registered for sure. The main intrigue of elections rests with preferences of Russian governmental circles for a certain candidate. So far, there are signs that Moscow supports Anatoliy Kaminskiy. He received a greeting message from his “counterpart”, the head of the Russian State Duma, Boris Gryzlov, on the 21st anniversary of independence of Transnistria. As well, Kaminskiy is the invitee of the Russian ruling party Yedinaya Rossya at the 12th congress set for September 23–24 in Moscow.

The leader of the public movement Vozrozhdenye, Evgeni Shevchyuk, member of the Supreme Soviet of Transnistria, was the No. 1 rival of Igor Smirnov some years ago and an alternative character for decision-making circles from Moscow, but he faced pressures and had to give up both the lead of the Supreme Soviet and of Obnovlenye. So far, surveys credit Shevchyuk with a relatively high rating. During the ongoing electoral campaign Shevchyuk focuses on social problems: reaching decent living standards; protecting interests of vulnerable people; combating corruption, etc. In his turn, Smirnov did not join the electoral race yet but hinted that he will focus as usually on ensuring “the constitutional system of Transnistria as a sovereign and independent state.”

The Central Electoral Commission (CEC) of Transnistria will have a budget of about 0.77 million dollars to hold the elections. The start of electoral campaign brought queries related to the rise of the number of electors by approximately 5,300 persons, while the number of population decreased by about 4,000 people last year. According to CEC, there are approximately 406,000 electors in Transnistria.

Meeting between Premier Vlad Filat and Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov

A conference dedicated to trust-building measures in the Transnistrian settlement process took place in Bad Reichenhall, Germany, on September 8–9, 2011. It took place under the OSCE aegis and brought together Moldovan Premier Vlad Filat and Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov as protagonists. According to Premier Filat, “the meeting was preceded by a discussion with the state secretary of the German Foreign Ministry, Emily Haber, with the participation of Lithuanian Foreign Minister Audronius Azubalis, OSCE chairman-in-office, and other representatives of the 5+2 negotiation format.” The conference brought together the OSCE Chairmanship’s special representative for protracted conflicts, Giedrius Cekuolis, the head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova, Philip Remler, Russia’s representative Sergei Gubarev, Ukraine’s special representative in the Transnistrian settlement process, Igor Kharchenko, the Ukrainian ambassador to Moldova, Sergei Pirozhkov, the EU representative in the Transnistrian settlement process, Miroslav Lajcak, the head of the EU Delegation to Moldova, Ambassador Dirk Shuebel, U.S. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel, U.S. participant in the Transnistrian settlement process. Participants in the talks agreed on the need to unlock the circulation of cargo and passenger trains in the Transnistrian section of railways; to settle problems in communication sector (wire, mobile telephony, and post services); to sign a common regulation on functioning of expert groups in charge with trust-building measures. The resumption of the 5+2 negotiation process was a distinct component of the meeting. The Transnistrian leader sought the removal of barriers to external commercial operations of Transnistria. As well, Smirnov noted that the Transnistrian side will seek an equal footing for the conflicting parties, when official 5+2 negotiations will restart.

The meeting between Premier Vlad Filat and Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov challenged controversial reactions in Moldovan political circles. While Premier Filat assures that this meeting is “an important step forwards the Transnistrian settlement”, Moldova’s interim President Marian Lupu describes it as “a controversial meeting.” In reply, Filat asked interim President Marian Lupu at a news conference to be more prudent in his statements, fearing that his sayings could affect the Transnistrian settlement process and hurt organisers of the German conference. Previously, representatives of the Party of Communists of the Republic of Moldova (PCRM) criticised bitterly the plans of Premier Filat to meet the Transnistrian leader. At the same time, the meeting in Bad Reichenhall was appreciated by Catherine Ashton, high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy, who believes that it will help reaching a consensus between the two banks of the Dniester: “The EU hopes that the parties will agree to resume the official negotiations at the end of this month in Moscow. In this framework, the efficient implementation of trust-building measures and the continuation of bilateral political contacts are essential elements for a successful settlement of the Transnistrian conflict.”

Resumption of official “5+2”negotiations

On September 22, participants in the Moscow consultations agreed on resumption of the “5+2” negotiations. Next “5+2” meeting, when it will be set, will focus on principles and ways to hold negotiations, as well as on working agenda of the Transnistrian settlement process. The Moldovan Government welcomed this decision, indicating “the priority character of the territorial reintegration process” and reaffirming its “commitment to keep doing its best to find a peaceful and lasting solution for the definitive resolution of this conflict.” According to a communication released by the Government, the resumption of negotiations “is the logical result of efforts made by all participants in the process in the last two years.” In this regard, it stressed the efforts of mediators and observers on behalf of the Russian Federation, Ukraine, OSCE, EU and U.S. As well, the communication indicated the effects of some actions contested by the PCRM opposition and interim President Marian Lupu regarding the so-called football diplomacy, meaning the meetings between Premier Vlad Filat and Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov, as well as the conference on strengthening confidence-building measures in the Transnistrian settlement process, held in early September under the OSCE aegis, with the support of the German Government. The decision to resume the negotiations was welcomed by OSCE Chairman-in-Office Audronius Azubalis, foreign minister of Lithuania, and Catherine Ashton, high representative of the European Union for foreign affairs and security policy. On the other hand, Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov was sceptical with the event, saying that the resumption of the official “5+2” negotiations is not a practical progress.

August 1–31, 2011 October 1–31, 2011