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Transnistrian Conflict on May 17–31, 2008

EU supports new Transnistria settlement measures

Moldovan president has attended a governmental sitting and made the totals of his participation in the May 27, 2008 Meeting of the European Union — Moldova Cooperation Council. According to President Voronin, in Brussels “it was agreed on a tighter cooperation with the European Union in settling the Transnistrian conflict. The European Commission showed readiness to set up a fund and cover expenses for the territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova.” In order to enjoy the eventual EU contribution, President Voronin continued, the Transnistrian settlement problem shall be discussed now “very transparently in all formats as never before, without hiding anything.” Also, President Voronin emphasised that a “completely reciprocal agreement on increasing the confidence-building action programme between Chisinau and Tiraspol” was reached with Brussels. In this context, Voronin asked governmental structures “to estimate eventual expenses for the territorial reintegration of the country, so that to enable the EU to assist this process.” (According to Moldpres)

Activity of working groups frozen

The activity of joint working groups established after the Voronin-Smirnov meeting and made of experts representing administrations from both banks of the Dniester is blocked in continuation. The Transnistrian side wants to make clear four questions, but Chisinau does not answer, in particular: what do expert groups discuss — the implementation of decisions and initiatives by Moldovan authorities or they work on new and common documents; what regulation the expert groups shall respect — the 1997 bilateral regulation or a new regulation shall be drafted; the work of expert groups will be or not covered by reports and how their efficiency will be measured; which is the attitude of Chisinau towards agreements it has formerly signed with Transnistria? Transnistria’s representatives consider that it makes no sense to discuss the resumption of work of expert groups as long as Chisinau does not answer these questions.

Transnistria not warming new National Security Concept of Republic of Moldova

The official propaganda of the Transnistrian regime has had an extremely negative reaction towards the National Security Concept of the Republic of Moldova adopted by Moldovan Parliament. It bitterly criticised some basic goals of the concept, in particular:

Negative reactions are particularly linked to the way the concept assesses threats against Moldova: “The presence in Transnistria of anti-constitutional military forces in the territory of the Republic of Moldova contrary to Moldovan legislation, international commitments and will of citizens encourages the consolidation of the separatist regime and perpetuates the status quo. Maintaining and consolidating the separatist regime amplify the discrepancy in the single legal framework of the Republic of Moldova, conditioning the impossibility to provide legal assistance to Moldovan citizens from the Transnistrian region, inclusively jeopardising the international legal cooperation in this area.” In this regard, the Transnistrian propaganda insists that the concept runs counter declared initiatives by Moldovan authorities to build confidence between the two banks of the Dniester. Indeed, Transnistria insists that the clause on permanent neutrality of Moldova is just a screen to lull Russia’s vigilance in order to pull out its troops from the region, and then Chisinau authorities will impose their solution to the Transnistrian problem and will follow again the direction to NATO and EU. Also, it insists that Russia should give up the out-of-date norms of international law and recognise the independence of separatist enclaves from Moldova and Georgia, especially because it has promised to do this should the West recognise the independence of Kosovo. Of course, Tiraspol raises its desires in a suggestive manner to flatter Russia.

Eventual yielding by Chisinau to settle Transnistrian conflict

Contacts between Russian and Moldovan officials have intensified much after the April meeting between President Voronin and Transnistrian leader Smirnov. There were rumours that the May 20, 2008 visit to Chisinau by Sergey Mironov, Chairman of Federation Council of Russia’s Federal Assembly, aimed to exchange opinions regarding possibility to quickly settle the Transnistrian conflict. The same day, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov asked representatives of states participating in the process of settlement of frozen conflicts not to meddle but to support joint efforts by parties. As Russia-supported separatist regimes are parties in frozen conflicts, Lavrov’s message is very clear. In this context, Mironov’s visit was irrelevant. Mironov’s statement that keys to settle the conflict are in the hands of Chisinau and Tiraspol means that Russia does not hurry up to give green light to a rapid resolution. Following Mironov’s visit to the Moldovan capital, the chairman of the State Duma committee for relations with CIS and fellows, Alexei Ostrovsky, has visited Chisinau and Tiraspol, while Moldovan Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Andrei Stratan has met his Russian counterpart Sergey Lavrov in Moscow. Russian and Moldovan officials “were satisfied with the level and dynamics of Moldovan-Russian political dialogue, saying that it will help resolve problems related to bilateral cooperation.” Diplomatic contacts aim to prepare the agenda of talks between Presidents Medvedyev and Voronin, which will be part of the forthcoming CIS summit in early June.

While nothing concrete was revealed after the meeting of the two foreign ministers, a press interview with Alexei Ostrovsky has disclosed very interesting facts. Indeed, Ostrovsky revealed facts discussed with Moldovan officials and yielding that President Voronin would accept in order to settle the Transnistrian conflict, in particular:

The Russian dignitary said that Russia will not recognise the independence of Transnistria under such circumstances. He reiterated that Russian authorities have a clear and coherent stance regarding the Russian military contingent from the Transnistrian region. It will be withdrawn only after the political settlement of the conflict.

At a May 29 meeting between Ostrivsky and Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov the latter emphasised that initiatives and good intentions by Moldovan president are a political bluff and they cannot be trusted. In order to regain the confidence of Transnistrian authorities, President Voronin should officially respond to Transnistria’s offer to sign a good neighbourhood agreement, as well as to prove that he respects his promises: to join Moldova to the Russia-Belarus Union; to declare the Russian as an official language; to turn the country into a confederation, etc. Smirnov warned that Russia’s plans to integrate Transnistria into Moldova, the poorest country in Europe, is an inadequate solution. Russia should provide the promised economic assistance, in compliance with the so-called “Zhukov-Smirnov” Protocol signed two years ago. The Russian dignitary agreed that the solution to the Transnistrian conflict should suit Transnistria, but stressed that there is a dose of seriousness in President Voronin’s initiatives and the yielding the Moldovan leader has allegedly accepted are worth of consideration.

Transnistrian observers consider that Russia could present a well-rounded rapid conflict resolution plan by autumn, when the parliamentary electoral campaign in Moldova will be close. State Duma chairman Boris Grizlov is expected to visit Chisinau in that period. According to Transnistrian observers, electoral circumstances would exercise a reeling pressing on President Voronin, who would suffer electoral losses, should he turn down an eventual new Russian plan, and he would have to yield much to Transnistria, should he give green light to the plan.

Social situation

Communist organisations from Transnistria held a protest meeting in the central market in Tiraspol on May 17, 2008. Protesters shouted slogans and urged the Transnistrian administration and oligarchy to pay decent salaries and pensions and control galloping prices. They accused Transnistrian authorities of hiding the economic disaster in the region. They demanded the resignation of Smirnov and Supreme Soviet, equal access to mass media for all political forces from the region. The May 17 protest against Tiraspol authorities was the amplest one since the separatist regime rules the breakaway region. According to knowledgeable sources 1,000–2,000 persons attended the protest. The permanent rise of prices of food products and other first-need products motivates the population to protest. According to statistics, prices of foodstuffs have grown by 123 percent the last year. The medium salary on Transnistrian economy amounts to approximately 220 dollars, while people have to spend about 3/4 of their earnings on food and communal services. At the same time, Transnistrian authorities are incapable to pay off debts towards GAZPROM, raising new debts of over 200 million dollars in 2007 alone.

May 1–16, 2008 June 1–15, 2008