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GUAM summit discusses frozen conflicts

At the GUAM summit in Batumi on July 1, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko called for a correct approach able to help communication, not blackmailing of forces from regions facing “frozen conflicts”. The frozen conflicts pose risk and destabilisation factors in the regions concerned. Ukraine calls for the priority of territorial integrity of states. According to Yushchenko, “a great progress was made in settling the Transnistrian conflict, as countries welcome the settlement plan released by Ukraine. We have a way to follow in order to settle this frozen conflict. Now, we aim to restart the «5+2» negotiations as soon as possible and all further efforts by Ukraine will aim to hold the first sitting after a long break.” The Moldovan president did not attend the GUAM summit to be persuaded that this organisation is promoting positive ideas for Moldova.

Details about Moldovan project on conflict resolution

According to the Transnistrian electronic publication Novy Region, during Transnistrian Dialogues organised by the Association for Foreign Policy in Moldova, Moldovan Minister of Reintegration Vasile Sova has revealed details of eventual offers of Chisinau to Transnistria, with the view to settle the conflict, in particular:

• Transnistria will be a republic as part of the Republic of Moldova, it will have a constitution;
• The Supreme Soviet of Transnistria will have the right to legislative initiative in the Parliament of Moldova;
• Transnsitria will be represented 1/5 in Moldovan Parliament, although the number of voters from the region counts for 1/6 of voters from the right bank of the Dniester (there are 400,000 voters in Transnsitria and 2.4 million in Moldova);
• Transnistria will be recognised the right to become subject of international law, should Moldova lose its independence;
• The integrated state — the Republic of Moldova — will be neutral, demilitarised;
• Ownership of those who have earlier privatised facilities in Transnistria will be recognised;
• Transnistria will not have the right to veto, but there will be a system of reciprocal guarantees confirmed by international participants in the settlement process;
• Guarantees will be extended on consolidation of all branches of social-economic activity aimed to ensure the reunification of the two banks of the Dniester as soon as possible;
• Security measures shall be guaranteed so that Chisinau and Tiraspol be unable to take any actions against each other at the initial stage.

According to Minister Sova, the Moldovan project is based on “package proposals” submitted to participants in the “5+2” f in order to be studied. However, the way the project will be implemented is unclear so far. Minister Sova said that Moldovan authorities will propose the convocation of participants in the “5+2” format to make a decision on this project. Of course, such a decision shall be made by consensus in order to be effective. Expected results are unclear. On one hand, “the project is expected to suit majority of citizens from both banks of the Dniester.” This would be possible by holding referenda, which would fail forever should it be turned out. On the other hand, legislative bodies of the conflicting sides should adopt the status. In the event of a positive vote, the Parliament of Moldova would vote a law to recognise results of privatisation in Transnistria. In this respect, it is unclear what legislative bodies should vote — the confirmation of results of eventual referendums or the “legal status of Transnsitria.” Thus, one may suppose that the draft status of Transnistria has been elaborated, but competences of the sides are unknown so far. Given negative reactions by Transnistrian leaders, Transnistria was proposed a status similar to the one of Crimea, and it would be enforced accordingly to the 2005 plan by Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko.

Transnistrian authorities undermine confidence-building actions

In the context of talks regarding the necessity to consolidate confidence-building actions between the two banks of the Dniester, the holding of the Moldova’s Post Office vehicle carrying currency to pay pensions to residents of Chisinau-controlled villages at the Transnistrian customs office in Dubasari on July 2 seems to be a deliberate provocation aimed to undermine the settlement process. The vehicle and currency were released on July 10. This example is an indicator that the process of approaching positions of the parties in order to accept the project revealed by Minister Sova is far from being optimistic. In general, things continue to develope in a very strange manner. On one hand, the GUAM summit has discussed the problem of “frozen conflicts” including the Transnistrian one, without participation of Moldovan officials of corresponding ranking. On the other hand, Russian and Transnistrian diplomacies focus on preparing a meeting between Transnistrian leader and Russian President Dmitri Medvedev on background of challenges aimed to demonstrate that conditions to approve the Moldovan plan are not optimal.

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