Monitoring→Politics→Transnistrian Conflict

At the initiative of the mediators on behalf of the OSCE, Russian Federation and Ukraine, on 17 — 18 October in Odessa will take place consultations regarding the resumption of the Transnistrian negotiations process. Initially, on 17 October will take place consultations of the mediators and the observers on behalf of the US and the EU, to be followed on 18 October by meetings of the mediators and observers in “5+1” format with the Moldovan Reintegration Minister, Vasile Sova, and the Transnistrian “foreign minister”, Valeri Litkai, separately. According to the OSCE Mission in Moldova Press Officer, Claus Neukirch, the Odessa consultations will only tackle the possibilities of resuming the political negotiations on the Transnistrian issue.

On the eve of the Odessa meetings, a delegation of the Russian Foreign Ministry, headed by Deputy Foreign Minister, Grigori Karasin, undertook an official visit to the Republic of Moldova. The visit of the Russian delegation took place the day after the meeting in Moscow between the Moldovan Foreign Minster, Andrei Stratan, with his Russian counterpart, Serghei Lavrov, at which, according to a communique of the Russian Foreign Ministry, the two discussed “ways of launching a constructive Russian-Moldovan dialogue, which was boosted by the meeting of the presidents of the two countries in August 2006”.

Karasin’s visit took place on the background of this “activisation” of Moldovan-Russian relations and was mainly about the Transnistrian problem. In Chisinau, he met with Moldovan President Vladimir Voronin and the Deputy Prime Minister Zinaida Grecianii. According to Russian media, the sides showed happy with the results of the meetings, and Karasin mentioned that the current “activisation” of relations between Moscow and Chisinau opens up opportunities for resolving the issues between the two states.

In Tiraspol, the high Russian diplomat met behind closed doors with Transnistrian leader, Igor Smirnov, and members of the Transnistrian “cabinet”. After the meeting, Karasin told journalists that the negotiations on Transnistria loss all point if they are not conducted between two equal sides. Karasin also told the press that he had discussed with the Transnistrian leaders a “transition protocol, without which the negotiations process may not be resumed.” The protocol with ensure the Transnistrian region the rights to independent foreign trade activity and would thus fulfil the condition set forth by the Transnistrian leaders for returning to the “5+2” negotiations. The Moldovan leadership has repeatedly ruled out recalling the current customs regime for Transnistria, saying such a move would bring Transnistrian businesses back into “shadow”.

Referring to the Transnistrian referendum, Karasin said its results “are a fact that may not be ignored whatever the political circumstances of Transnistria in the future are.” “The referendum gave more confidence to the population and leaders of Transnistria that they are on the right path”, the Russian emissary continued.

While in Transnistria, the Russian Foreign Ministry delegation met with the commandment of the Russian peacekeeping forces in Transnistria, during which Karasin stated that current discussions about the inefficiency of the Russian peacekeepers are “unfounded” and that attempts to “discredit” them have no other aim but to expulse them from Moldova and Georgia.

Russian media commented on a rather positive tone Karasin’s visit to Moldova, but also the recent meeting of the two states’ foreign ministers and the resumption of work of the Russian-Moldovan intergovernmental committee. These developments would mark an “unfreezing” of the Russian-Moldovan relations and would open up new opportunities for moving the Transnistrian settlement from the dead point. At the same time, the Russian media note that this “warming” of relations comes at a time of maximum confrontation between Russia and Georgia and would be intended to disrupt the alliance of the Moldovan leadership with the leadership of the “coloured revolutions” leaders in Georgia and Ukraine and to attract Moldova into its own sphere of interest. The concessions made by Moscow to Moldova — a possible resumption of Moldovan wine exports to Russia, fixing prices on Russian electricity and gas that are acceptable to Moldova etc., although of maximum economic importance for Moldova, do not herald anything good, as long as Moscow’s rhetoric on the Transnistrian problem remains unchanged and as openly supporting the break away Transnistrian leaders. The statements made by Karasin in the Transnistrian region are in complete opposition to the position of the Moldovan Government on the issues touched, such as the Transnistrian referendum, the participation of the Transnistrian side in the negotiations as an “equal party”, the integration of Transnistria into the economic and social spheres of Russia, the Russian peacekeepers, etc.

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