Monitoring→Politics→Transnistrian Conflict

Economic problems

• Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov has met the deputy chairman of the Gazprom concern administration, Valery Golubev, and the head of the directorate for neighbouring countries, Anatoly Podmishalisky. The talks focussed on payment of Transnistria’s 1.6-billion-dollar debt for gas and imminence of increasing prices the next years, so that 1,000 cubic metres of gas shall cost 257 dollars by 2011. Updating gas tariffs for consumers in terms to approach them to gas acquisition prices of Gazprom, which went up to 192.75 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres, is a possible solution. Now the average gas supply price in Transnistria is 64 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres, with household consumers paying 50 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres and industrial enterprises paying 105 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres of gas. Smirnov sought the supply of gas to Transnistria in exchange for internal prices for the Russian Federation, noting that Russian industrial agents operating in the region, the metallurgical plant and cement factory in Ribnita and the Dubasari-based Power Plant pay in fact prices comparable with internal tariffs in Russia. He insisted again that Transnistria is obliged to buy gas from Gazprom in exchange for about 193 dollars and to sell them to Russian enterprises in exchange for approximately 105 dollars, but fell short of revealing the mechanisms and interests of these schemes.

Social problems

• Transnistrian unionists signal a ceaseless price rise and salary arrears. Salary arrears accounted for 107 million Transnistrian roubles (1 dollar is equivalent to approximately 8.5 roubles). A difficult situation is observed in the education sector, as teachers are paid their salaries with a 2–3-month delay. Salary arrears in the productive sector are also essential. Some enterprises have salary arrears worth 7–9,000 roubles for certain workers. But the healthcare sector is facing the worst situation. Estimating evolutions of prices and salaries, unionists note that a kilogram of grains was worth 1.5 roubles in 2007 while this price increased about 2.3-fold in the first months of 2008. Salaries have grown 1.2-fold. Thus, wages of health personnel are 2–3-fold lower (330–420 roubles) than the “minimum consumption basket”. According to the newspaper “Novaya Gazeta”, Transnistrian authorities are losing the confidence of citizens, as the regional legislation on salaries, their indexation accordingly to price rises is not respected. Tales of “grandfather Smirnov” and “unionist leader Sohin” about the higher price rise in Chisinau and Moscow do not impress people any longer.
• Transnistrian retirees who count for 134,000 people in the region also face problems related to budgetary shortcomings. The Transnistrian budget fails to finance the deficit of the pension fund in the amount of approximately 7 million (revenues in the 2008 pension fund account for 100 million dollars while expenses amount to 107 million dollars). The minimum pension in 2008 shall amount to about 32 dollars, which covers 46 percent of the minimum consumption basket. The medium pension including additions shall amount to approximately 65 dollars, which covers about 93 percent of the minimum consumption basket. In this context, the financing of the pension fund in the district of Dubasari was 1.5-fold lower than needed in February 2008. For this reason, retirees were paid in February 2008 an 85-rouble indemnity each, which is paid to all retirees starting January 1 from the 27-million-dollars humanitarian aid.
• Starting 2008, Transnistria annulled the facilities for students. Therefore, 5,282 out of 6,122 students of the Tiraspol-based University T.G. Shevcenko pay an education fee worth 530–750 dollars a year for daily attendance education and 200–700 dollars for non-attendance education. For comparison, education fees are 2–5-fold higher in Ukraine and 2–10-fold higher in Russia than in Transnistria. Students from large families pay 50 percent of the education fee. Students rated with a higher average mark than 4.5 (5 is the maximum mark) may be exempted from education fees, but 90 percent of them have to work in budgetary organisations or enterprises where they are assigned after graduation.
• The youth parliament held debates on military service: realities and prospects, in Tiraspol on February 22. Participants included among others the head of the Transnistrian Army General Staff, Vladimir Atamanyuk, who noted that accusations of irregular relations are wrong. He said that the Transnistrian region lacks funds to maintain a professional army. Recruits are often underdeveloped and cannot self-protect against hooligans from barracks. Thus, approximately half of young men must undergo profound medical tests every year immediately after being recruited. Some recruits have criminal records and inoculate the criminal ethics among soldiers. These negative factors superpose on decline of education rate, growth of alcohol and drug addiction among youths. All these factors fortify the trend of imitating actions from Hollywood movies and this explains the negative phenomena in the Transnistrian army and the fact that recruits face irregular relations. However, Atamaniuk was confident that the Transnistrian army is capable to get through eventual provocations.

Impact of Kosovo case on internal processes

• Transnistrian authorities have originally reacted to the declaration on Kosovo’s independence on February 17, 2008 and its recognition by a number of countries with the greatest international weight. They condemned the actions of the United States, describing them as a violation of basic norms of international law, in particular, of clauses of the Final Helsinki Act. In all likelihood, Transnistrian leaders envy Kosovo authorities who achieved what Transnistrian separatists have openly demanded in the past 18 years. Transnistrian leaders wanted to be the first to breach the international law, but they failed and now they pretend to protect the international law or demand a treatment like that received by Kosovo. As usually, Transnistrian leaders reiterated that the Transnistrian region has more rights to independence than Kosovo has.
• The Moldovan Government reacted on February 18 to the declaration on independence of Kosovo, releasing a statement to note that “though the Kosovo problem is unique in terms of composition, such a «settlement» formula is both a violation of Serbia’s territorial integrity and a serous destabilisation factor in Europe, a dangerous stimulant for the separatist environment in all conflicting regions.” On February 22, the Parliament of Moldova adopted a statement raising disagreement and concern over this issue.
• Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov has not been convoked in Moscow for consultations regarding eventual reactions to the declaration on Kosovo’s independence and its recognition by a number of states with the greatest international weight. In this situation, Transnistrian political forces focussed “to ensure the maximum integration of Transnistria into the Russian Federation,” holding an international conference themed “Going ahead with Russia” on February 22. A strategic cooperation agreement between the Patriotic Party led by Oleg Smirnov, Republican Party headed by Vladimir Rileakov and People’s Will Party of Transnistria led by Oleg Gudimo was signed at the conference. The People’s Will Party is a branch of the nationalist party with the same name from Russia led by former deputy chairman of the State Duma Sergei Baburin. The agreement of the three pro-Smirnov parties is interpreted as a consolidation of forces to eventually compete with the Obnovlenye Party of the head of the Tiraspol legislature, Evgeny Shevchyuk, who is regarded the new favourite of Moscow who should replace Smirnov in an eventual conflict settlement process imposed by the Kremlin. But these are speculations for the time being. It is certain that Shevchyuk is developing tight relations with the major Russian ruling party Yedinnaya Rossia, while Smirnov and the three parties supporting him are affiliated to the secondary ruling party of Russia Spravedlivaya Rossia. It seems that Shevchyuk has got into favour with the European Union, which has recently decided to withdraw him from the list of persons who are restricted access to the E.U. Moldovan authorities decline their influence on this decision.
• The European Union Council adopted on February 25 the Common Position 2008/160/CFSP concerning restrictive measures against the leadership of the Transnistrian region. According to the document adopted under the auspices of Title V of the E.U. Treaty, “on February 27, 2003 the Council adopted the Common Position 2003/139/CFSP, renewed through the Common Position 2004/179/CFSP from February 23, 2004 which expires on February 27, 2008,” accordingly to which member states shall take the necessary restrictive measures to prevent the entry into, or transit through their territories of the persons (Annex I)^[1] who are responsible for preventing progress in arriving a political settlement of the Transnistrian conflict and those obstructing and intimidating Latin script schools in Transnistria (Annex II)^[2]:

Efforts to restart negotiations

• On February 26 Valery Litskai, foreign minister of Transnistria, met Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Grigory Karasin in Moscow. They discussed ways to resume the Chisinau-Tiraspol negotiations. The sides stressed that the dialogue between the parties on an equal footing is a basic element to normalise the relations and settle the conflict. The Russian diplomat reiterated the inadmissibility of methods which run counter the international law such as the recent recognition of Kosovo by a number of states.
• President Voronin expressed optimism during a TV programme on February 29 that the “Five-Plus-Two” negotiations on settlement of the Transnistrian conflict will restart very soon after a two-year pause. Voronin noted that a package of documents has been elaborated and it was shared to mediators and observers and will ensure the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. The president was confident that he has persuaded President Putin to accept a long negotiation session either in Sankt-Petersburg or in Helsinki. Also, President Voronin noted that the package of documents proposed to negotiators does not any contain provisions capable to violate the July 22, 2005 law on basic principles of status of the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova. The package of documents refers to the status of Transnistria; necessary guarantees; withdrawal of weaponry from the region; withdrawal of the Russian military presence; civil peacekeeping mission. Voronin ruled out any deal with Russia. He assured that President Putin backs these approaches and, in the event they are approved by all participants, the documents will be delivered to heads of state and leadership of institutions participating in the “Five-Plus-Two” negotiations, in order to find a solution to the implementation mechanism. At the same time, the Parliament and the Government of the Republic of Moldova will look for a solution to the mechanisms of signing the documents. President Voronin hinted that this approach meets the agreement reached at a February 13 meeting between Russian and Ukrainian presidents and confirmed at the February 22 informal CIS summit.

Russian presidential elections in eastern districts of Moldova

• The Moldovan Parliament has refused to take an attitude towards the Russian presidential elections in eastern district of the country which are under the jurisdiction of the separatist regime. In turn, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration has delivered a notification to the Russian Embassy in Chisinau, saying that the Russian presidential elections in Moldova may be held in the Russian Embassy in Chisinau only. In contrast, Georgia has vehemently protested against the opening of polling stations in the separatist enclaves of Abkhazia and South Ossetia like in Russia’s territory. In their turn, Russian authorities cited the Constitution of the country, which stipulates the right of Russian citizens to cast their ballots. At the same time, independent experts in Russia said that Russian citizens from Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Transnistria hold Russian passports, not identity cards. In these circumstances, Russian authorities should make a choice in order to be cogent and respect the legislation of their country: either to open polling stations in other countries with the consent of the latter and allow Russian citizens to vote with Russian passports, or if they open polling stations in foreign territories like in own country and ignore the protests of constitutional authorities, they should prohibit the voting on basis of Russian passports, accordingly to the Russian legislation.
• The chairman of the Transnistrian Central Electoral Commission, Pyotr Denisensko, has told the public that the Transnistrian administration and legislature control all procedures linked to the Russian presidential elections. Electoral procedures and propaganda meet the Russian legislation. Personnel of polling stations are mixed — there are representatives of the Russian Embassy and by three residents of the region. It should be mentioned that 23 polling stations have been opened in eastern districts of Moldova for the March 2, 2008 Russian presidential elections. The Transnistrian constituency is part of the Kaliningrad constituency.

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