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Transnistrian Conflict on January 1–18, 2009

Impact of Voronin-Smirnov meeting on Chisinau-Tiraspol relations

Following the December 24, 2008 Voronin-Smirnov meeting, Transnistrian dignitaries have taken actions to undermine the agreements of the two. On that occasion, the Reintegration Ministry has released a communication saying that “… starting January 1, 2009, Moldovan citizens are asked again to pay taxes, but this time 22 lei per person (compared with 8 lei previously), in order to be allowed to enter and stay in the secessionist region. Given the fact that these actions contravene to agreements reached during the recent meeting between Moldovan President and Transnistrian leader concerning the abolition of any taxes starting January 1, 2009, a decision made public, the Reintegration Ministry has invited all structures concerned from Tiraspol and representatives of mediators and observers in the negotiation process to take emergent actions in order to ensure respect for the agreements concerned.” The rhetoric by Transnistrian officials matched these actions as well. In this regard, while addressing residents on the New Year’s Eve, Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov balanced by the “victory of great Russia” in the Russian-Georgian conflict and the “double policy of Moldova — a member of GUAM, a friend of Georgia”; Russia’s efforts to settle conflicts and those of the West in Kosovo, reiterating that the Transnistrian conflict may be settled within a dialogue between two equal parties — Moldova and Transnistria; efforts of economic development of Transnistria and world financial crisis generated by the U.S.

Prospects to resume the “5+2” negotiations

Transnistrian foreign minister Vladimir Yastrebceak stated on January 8, 2009 that speaking about an eventual restart of the “5+2” negotiation is early. According to Yastrebceak, the lack of guarantees for the external commercial activity of Transnsitria is the No.1 obstacle on the negotiations way. He recalled that the negotiations were ceased in March 2006 after Moldova and Ukraine have introduced new customs regulations for the export of goods from Transnistria without consulting the latter. He also accused Moldova of constantly taking actions to harden the export by Transnistrian enterprises. According to the Transnistrian Chamber of Commerce, expenses by Transnistria-based economic agents recorded by Moldovan customs services have increased by 90 percent in 2008 compared with 2007, while expenses recorded by the Chamber of Commerce have grown tenfold. More than that, Moldova has introduced collections for ecological and phytosanitary controls, applying fines for direct import of raw material from Ukraine in Transnistria. In conditions of economic crisis, these regulations raise new barriers and introduce additional pressures on Transnitrian economic agents. Yastrebceak says that Moldovan authorities are aware of their actions aimed at increasing the number of Transnistria-based enterprises with a permanent registration on the right bank of the Dniester.

Speaking about Chisinau’s demilitarisation initiative, Yastrebceak described this proposal as doubtful. He recalled that President Voronin is not the author and it was initially proposed by guarantors and mediators in 2004. The demilitarisation is impossible as long as the conflict is unsettled, since clear further guarantees are unavailable. In addition, the demilitarisation would not be accepted as long as the Interior Ministry of Moldova is a militarised structure. As well, Transnistria does not like the insistence of Moldovan authorities to see the Russian troops outside of Transnistria in the demilitarisation process. Yastrebceak’s conclusion regarding the conflict resolution initiatives by Chisinau, including the “package approach”, which includes the draft law on Transnistria’s status and a draft political declaration, does not contain any new facts and is not worthy of a great consideration. At the same time, Yastrebceak hinted that it would be better for Transnistria to expect half a year, as the Chisinau governance will be changed after the spring 2009 parliamentary elections and persons who do not care much about the Transnistrian settlement could succeed to the power.

Gas crisis

The gas conflict between Russia and Ukraine has found the Transnistrian authorities unprepared. In consequence, the region did not have gas for approximately ten days or it had just a little. Heating plants were short of alternative fuel and thus the education process was interrupted for about 10 days. But the utmost curiosity was that while Transnistrian education minister Maria Pashchenko was admonishing journalists for “vicious forecasts” on ceasing gas supply, the supply was really ceased. Transnistrian dignitaries concluded that they have to learn from what has happened, as capacities to store alternative energy agents are empty since 1996. After the gas crisis the electricity consumption has increased by 30 percent and hit power networks and generators which went out of work.

The gas crisis had serious consequences on Transnistrian economy. According to estimates by Transnistrian dignitaries, economic enterprises will be able to resume their normal activity by early February only, while daily losses related to the gas crisis are estimated at three million dollars.

The EU special representative to Moldova, Mr. Kalman Mizsei, has stated in connection with the gas crisis that it could encourage the approach of Transnistria and Moldova in terms of conflict resolution. The crisis conditions may reveal the necessity of “confidence measures” and persuade the parties that joint efforts are capable to help finding a favourale solution for both sides.

December 1–31, 2008 January 19 – February 1, 2009