Monitoring→Politics→Transnistrian Conflict

The Russian Federation will not sign the Declaration of Stability and Security for the Republic of Moldova at the OSCE Summit in Sofia in early December, the new Russian Ambassador to Moldova, Nicolai Reabov, told a press-conference on 24 November in Chisinau.

According to Moldavskie vedomosti, the Russian Federation has not rejected or ignored President Voronin’s initiative regarding the signature of a Pact of Stability and Security for the Republic of Moldova^[1], and has proposed that such a document serves as the final accord and an integral part of the package of international agreements that are to be signed as part of the Transnistrian settlement. Thus, the signatories will not be just guarantors of the territorial integrity and neutrality of the Republic of Moldova, but also of the democratic principles of edifying a multiethnic society within a common state with Transnistria.

According to Ambassador Reabov, the Republic of Moldova has ignored Moscow’s proposals, Instead, it has submitted to Russia for consideration a draft Declaration proposed by the US and supported by the EU. “Russia does not accept such a development of events. Therefore we will not examine such documents”, Reabov was quoted as saying by the same source. On the other hand, asked to comment on the aforesaid statement Victor Stepaniuc said “Russian diplomat is not fully aware of the Russian Government” intentions and that “negotiations with Moscow continue including at the level of document signers”. Ian Boag, Chief of the European Commission to Moldova and John F. Tefft, Deputy Assistant Secretary, Bureau of European and Eurasian Affairs of the US State Department, also confirmed that negotiations on the document are still continuing with Kremlin.

In another context, Reabov expressed his bewilderment at the fact that the Moldovan leaders have declared that the recent mediators’ round of consultations in Varna has been a failure, as well as at fact that the Moldovan side refuses to return to the negotiations table. At the same time Reabov denied any disagreements between the mediators, invoking the final document signed in Varna, whereby the mediators express their support for a politically negotiated solution to the Transnistrian conflict, on the basis of mediators’ proposals and previously signed agreements.

Furthermore, Reabov reaffirmed Russia’s support for the Kozak Memorandum, 80% of which, he reminded, were drafted by the Moldova side; rejected the idea to replace the current peacekeeping forces, in which Russia holds the largest share, with multination ones on grounds that these forces have proven their efficiency; and said that although Russia regards Transnistria as part of Moldova, it will continue the dialogue with the de facto existing authorities and institutions in Transnistria.

Ambassador Reabov’s statements have provoked a wave of reactions both on behalf of authorities and the public opinion. The Moldovan Foreign Ministry issued on 25 November a statement, in which it accused the Russian Federation of having breached the norms of diplomatic behaviour, whereas the Government newspaper Moldova suverana accused Russia of applying “totalitarian tactics” in its bilateral and international relations. The Head of the Communist faction of deputies, Victor Stepaniuc, said in an interview with Radio Free Europe that both Russia and Ukraine, as guarantor states, are “obliged” to sign the proposed Declaration, and that if Russia fails to do so its status of guarantor in the Transnistrian problem will lose all meaning. Vlad Cubreacov, leader of the People’s Christian Democratic Party faction in Parliament, qualified Reabov’s statements as “aggressive and provoking” and a proof of the formal status of Russia as guarantor in the Transnistrian problem.

Many political analysts in Chisinau have commented on the statements of the Russian diplomat in Chisinau in light of the ongoing electoral crisis in Ukraine, where Russia’s overt and massive support for the pro-Russian presidential candidate has shown how far Russia would go in order to protect its hegemonic position in the so-called “near neighbourhood”, and wondered whether the same scenario will be applied in Moldova next spring.

On the other hand, observers have drawn parallels between Reabov’s statements and last year’s Kozak Memorandum events on the eve of the OSCE Summit in Istanbul. Thus, it seems that Russia has made a habit out of tensioning the situation around Transnistria on the eve of OSCE Summits so that, when asked about its failure to withdraw weapons and troops from Transnistria, it can invoke “unfavourable political circumstances” that deter it from complying with its international commitments.

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