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Transnistrian Conflict on September 1–15, 2008

Format of eventual negotiations: “5+2” versus “3+0”

On September 3, 2008, Russian President Dmitry Medvedev received Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov after coordinating the meeting with President Vladimir Voronin. In consequence, Smirnov had to lift the moratorium on relations with Chisinau introduced after the Russian-Georgian conflict has started. According to Smirnov, the Russian president reconfirmed the conditions to support the conflict resolution, in particular, Russia will back any decision accepted by Chisinau and Tiraspol, knowing that Chisinau is ready to award a legal status to Transnistria which would be capable to provide a wide autonomy within the current unitary state, in compliance with the Moldovan Constitution, while Tiraspol seeks a friendship and cooperation agreement with the Republic of Moldova, that means the recognition of its independence. In order to make Smirnov lift the moratorium, the Russian president promised to provide Transnsitria with economic assistance and to resume actions stipulated by the so-called Zhukov-Smirnov Protocol. There were allegations after the Medvedev-Smirnov meeting that a new Voronin-Smirnov meeting could be organised by late September under the auspices of the Russian president, which would give green light to negotiations in a “3+0” format (Russia, Transnsitria, the Republic of Moldova) concerning the adopted version of the famous “Kozak Memorandum”, in order to approve eventual agreements in the “5+2” format.

In this context, the EU special representative to Moldova, Kalman Miszei, said on September 5, 2008 during the “Transnistrian Dialogues” organised with the support of the Association for Foreign Policy (AFP) that a lasting solution to the Transnistrian conflict may be found and ensured in the “5+2” format only.

On September 8, 2008, Vienna hosted consultations of mediators and observers of the Transnistrian issue in the “3+2” format. After negotiations, the head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova, Philip Remler, shared with Moldovan authorities the opinion that there were premises to settle the conflict. In this context, the chairman of the Moldovan Parliament, Marian Lupu, emphasised on September 15 that the negotiation process relating to the conflict resolution may be resumed only in the “5+2” format, which ensures an optimal transparency and credibility framework, as well as for post-conflict developments.

On September 10, 2008, Brussels hosted the meeting of the North-Atlantic Council in the format 26 + Republic of Moldova, attended by Minister of Foreign Affairs and European Integration Andrei Stratan. On this occasion, Minister Stratan had a meeting with NATO Secretary-General Jaap De Hoop Scheffer. Mr. Stratan reconfirmed the official position of Moldovan authorities concerning the Transnistrian issue, in particular, the fact that the “5+2” format is the only way to find a peaceful solution; Moldova has a decisive and inalterable position regarding the Adapted CFE Treaty, especially regarding Russia’s respect for the 1999 Istanbul commitments. In this context, Minister Stratan expressed gratitude to NATO for supporting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova, reporting national evolutions in implementing the Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) between the Republic of Moldova and NATO. He confirmed that Moldova will keep cooperating with NATO, particularly within the IPAP, on the basis of the constitutional neutrality principle. Perhaps the clauses expressed by Andrei Stratan aimed to be heard by Russian authorities and Chisinau political forces, meaning that the Republic of Moldova will not give up the “5+2” format to accept the “3+0” format; it will not yield in principle issues for the sake of a rapid resolution of the Transnistrian conflict under pressures of the electoral agenda; the Constitution and legislation of Moldova confirm the neutrality of the country and an international confirmation is unnecessary. In this regard, it is worth to note that Minister of Reintegration Vasile Sova has also confirmed that the “5+2” format is the best one to resume the negotiations, while contacting Ukrainian diplomats and making public addresses.

Do chances to recognise Transnistria’s independence suit its supporters?

In the context of the recognised independence of Abkhazia and South Ossetia by Russia, the separatist Transnistrian regime has found supporters among communist political parties in Moldova and Ukraine which are incapable the least to get officially registered, as well as in Transnistria, which have a rating of tenths of percent. Thus, on September 15, 2008, the Party of Communists of Moldova — Party of Communists of the Soviet Union (PCM-PCSU), the Party of Communists of Ukraine — PCSU (PCU-PCSU) and the Party of Communists of Transnistria — PCSU (PCT-PCSU) released a statement addressing the Russian, Ukrainian and Moldovan Parliaments, asking them to recognise the independence of Transnsitria. They motivated their appeal with the risk of “territorial claims by Romania” which allegedly endanger the existence of the Republic of Moldova itself.

Socio-economic developments

The socio-economic situation in Transnsitria is complicated so far. Transnistrian speaker Evgeny Shevchiuk has stated to the Ukrainian TV channel “Inter” that the current difficulties are a consequence of the fact that Transnistria has not been recognised internationally. For this reason, Transnistria cannot open new jobs, raise salaries, improve education, people emigrate, the demographic condition is deplorable, decreasing by more than ¼ since Transnistria exists. He noted that the Transnistrian economy would grow by 15 percent a year, if the Republic of Moldova did not block it. At the same time, Shevchiuk repeated the thesis that Transnistria survives as a political-economic entity thanks to the Russian support.

An analysis of the structure of products made in Transnistria reveals that half of them are made by the food industry, which was affected by a grave drought last year. The transportation sector was also hit, as it covered 80 percent this year compared with 2007 due to dearer fuels. Another cause of the decline of transports is the fact that Transnistrian carriers cannot get the TIR chart for international carriages because the secessionist enclave is not recognised internationally. In general, the Transnistrian industry has achieved both progresses and regresses this year. Thus, some progress was made in the energy manufacturing, metallurgy, engineering and processing industry, light and food industries. The greatest growth of approximately threefold was achieved by the building material manufacturing industry. Regresses were linked to the chemical industry, wood processing industry, and particularly the glass manufacturing industry, which covers only 7 percent this year, compared with 2007.

Despite difficulties, Transnistrian exports achieved a great growth in 2008. The newspaper of Transnistrian unionists “Profsoiuznye Vesti” has published statistics on geography of Transnistrian exports. According to the publication, specialised Moldovan institutions have certified 454 Transnistria-based economic agents before August 1, 2008, of which 160 were recorded for a permanent term and another 294 for a temporary term. The external trade of Transnistria registered by Moldovan customs bodies was worth 654.4 million dollars, of which 569.5 million dollars in exports and 84.9 million dollars in imports. The geography of Transnistrian supplies cover 69 countries. Eighty percent of exports go to 9 countries, in particular, Russia, Romania, Poland, Italy, Germany, Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, and Austria. Forty-seven percent of Transnistrian exports go to the Commonwealth of Independent States and another 34.3 percent to the European Union.

The Ribnita-based Metallurgical Plant covered 88 percent of all export declarations, achieving a 55-percent growth compared with the same period of last year. Almost half (46 percent) of its goods go to Russia, and another half go to 36 countries. Supplies by the light industry (textiles, clothes, footwear, etc.) have grown by 39 percent. The EU is the No.1 market for these goods (it absorbs more than 85 percent). The cement ranks the 3rd place in the Transnistrian export, as the cement manufacturing has grown eightfold compared with the same period of 2007. This export goes, in particular, to Russia, Romania and Palestine. Transnistrian unionists were astonished after releasing these statistics, saying that they “are working hard, but the Transnistrian treasury is empty so far.”

Regroupings of political forces

It was announced on September 15, 2008 that the Patriotic Party of Transnistria (PPT) led by Oleg Smirnov, the son of Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov, has plans to merger with the Republican Party of Transnsitria (RPT) headed by Vladimir Rileakov, a well-known red director who supported the Transnistrian regime in the early 1990s. The news comes to confirm statements delivered on September 13, when a news conference with the participation of Oleg Smirnov, Vladimir Rileakov and Roman Hudeakov, leaders of the Transnistrian branch of the Russian Democratic Liberal Party, discussed joint efforts of the three parties to support the introduction of the proportional electoral system instead of the majority system. The consolidation of political forces with the participation of the son of Igor Smirnov, Oleg, may be regarded as an additional indicator that the latter will succeed his father. Another indicator in this regard is that fact that Igor Smirnov was accompanied by his son at diverse meetings with Russian officials this year. Key messages of the 4th Congress of PPT led by Oleg Smirnov reveal that this party is getting ready for a serious political race with the Obnovlenye Party headed by Transnistrian speaker Evgeny Shevchiuk, the political rival of Igor Smirnov. In this respect, the assault by Oleg Smirnov against the course of liberalisation of the Transnistrian economy held by Obnovlenye as a political representative of the influent interests of Sheriff Company is not an occurrence. Oleg Smirnov and his party have recently proposed a new tax for monopolist corporations and their super profits, envisaging Sheriff directly. Also, they propose a proportional taxation of incomes and luxury estates. The electoral tint of these initiatives is clear, being consolidated by patriotic messages, recognition of the Orthodoxy as an official religion, introduction of religion in schools, etc.

According to Regnum.Ru, Olvia-Press, Novy Reghion, Nezavisimaia Gazeta

August 2–31, 2008 September 16–30, 2008