Transnistrian Conflict on November 16–30, 2008

“5+2”format — the best one

U.S. Ambassador to Moldova Asif J. Chaudhry visited Tiraspol on November 24 and met Transnistrian officials there. According to the news agency Olvia-press, the U.S. diplomat has shared the interest of his country to help developing the regional infrastructure via the Millennium Challenge Corporation project, especially to contribute to rebuilding two segments of the ninth European transit corridor which crosses the region from the left bank of the Dniester. Asked to tell his point of view regarding the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict, the U.S. ambassador stated that the resolution shall be based on the territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova; the “5+2” negotiation format is the best one to find an optimal solution; the withdrawal of the Russian military forces from the Transnistrian region is essential for the conflict resolution.

Transnistrian issue to be discussed at the annual OSCE Ministerial Summit

OSCE Secretary-General Marc Perrin de Brichambaut accompanied by the head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova, Mr. Philip Remler, visited Transnistria on November 29. The aim of the visit was to collect facts about the conflict resolution negotiation process, as the December 4–5 Ministerial Summit in Helsinki will discuss the Transnistrian issue as well. The visit included a meeting with Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov, who reported his meetings with Presidents Voronin, Yushchenko and Medvedev this year. OSCE representatives have stressed more than once the need to restart the “5+2” negotiations, assuring that this is the best format. However, Smirnov reconfirmed Russia’s position which would support any solution accepted by the conflicting parties, with the “5+2” format aiming to confirm agreements reached within the “2+1” format.

Commander of Russian ground forces inspects Russian peacekeepers from Transnistria

General Bladimir Boldirev, commander of the Russian land forces, visited the Transnistrian region on November 26. The declared goal of the visit was to inspect garrisons of Russian peacekeepers. According to Tiraspol’s mouthpiece Olvia-Press, Russian peacekeepers would count for 700 persons. The agency noted that the peacekeeping mission is allegedly regulated by the convention on principles of peaceful settlement of the armed conflict in the Transnistrian region of the Republic of Moldova.

Note by ADEPT: Olvia-press reports are untrue. Firstly, the Transnistrian agency distorted the name of the convention. Secondly, the convention does not regulate the peacekeeping mission, but “military contingents of volunteers.”

Impact of the world financial crisis on Transnistrian economy

According to estimates by the deputy chairman of the Transnistrian Chamber of Commerce, Yuri Ganin, the production volume has dropped by about 20 percent over the last months following the world financial crisis. Ganin noted that Transnistria was exporting production worth 94 million dollars a month before the crisis, and the cost of supplies dropped down to 74 million dollars in October (prices of metal and cement, key exports of Transnistria, have decreased twofold on the world market). Expectations for the first half of next year are pessimistic, as imports will likely decrease in continuation, in order to remedy effects of the crisis, experts of the Transnistrian Chamber of Commerce recommends actions such as providing banks with liquidities, combating inflation, encouraging exports. But the Russian financial support is the major hope in this regard. Ganin spoke about what he described as catastrophic condition of the Transnistrian agriculture. He said that the Transnistrian region imports 85 percent of the food products it needs. The agricultural production from the region covers only 10 percent of the volume of 1991, when the USSR had collapsed. Ganin considers that the current crisis is an occasion to start redressing the economy of the Transnistrian region and remedy three disequilibria:

The first disequilibrium is the fact that Transnistria pays annually 400 million dollars more for imports than it collects from exports. The currency deficit is the effect of the trade balance deficit;

The second disequilibrium is budgetary. Budgetary expenses grow every year and there is no strategic vision regarding sources to complete expenses but increasing the tax burden on industrial units;

The third disequilibrium consists in the relation between industry, agriculture and small business. The Transnistrian economy is based on industry, and about ten enterprises complete the budgetary incomes. This disequilibrium makes the Transnistrian economy very unstable. Thus, the Transnistrian economy would immediately lose about 60 percent of the volume should the Ribnita-based Metallurgical Factory stop working for certain reasons. The share of the small business in the Transnistrian GDP is 13 percent only (According to Olvia-press).

Republic of Moldova recognises Russia’s properties in Transnistria?!

After the November 13–14, 2008 CIS Summit, Moldovan Prime Minister Zinaida Greceanii and her Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin have had a bilateral meeting and signed four documents. One of them envisages the Cuciurgan Power Plant located on the left bank of the Dniester River, “belonging to the Russian investor Inter RAO EES” (the power plant belongs to Inter RAO EES after being scandalously owned by other “investors”). Thus, during the Greceanii-Putin meeting, the Moldovan state enterprise Moldelectrica and Inter RAO EES have signed a contract on the use of Moldovan power networks for the export of energy from the Cuciurgan plant to Romania.

Note by ADEPT: The signing of the contract between Moldelectrica and Inter RAO EES in the presence of Premiers Greceanii and Putin should probably mean that Moldova recognises the Russian company as owner of the Cuciurgan Power Plant, though the latter was not privatised accordingly to the Moldovan legislation. Curiously, five years ago, Vladimir Putin, in his quality of president of Russia, should attend the signing of the Kozak Memorandum in Chisinau and give the necessary weight to this document.

Smirnov prepare his successor

The Patriotic Party of Transnistria (PPT) led by Oleg Smirnov, the son of the Transnistrian leader, has adopted a new programme. According to developers, the new programme has a social-patriotic nature which denies the liberalism for seeking the “escape of the state from economy and not caring about social stratification.” The programme also stipulates the introduction of a proportional electoral system; the opening of the public chamber for controlling public authorities; the recognition of the Orthodox as religion of the majority; the gradual rise of taxation, depending on income; the taxation of the luxury in the amount of 1–5 percent of the cost of luxury objects. Resources collected from the tax on luxury should fund social programmes. PPT has plans to establish a strategic partnership with trade unions.

Initiative by civil society turned down

The editorial staff of the Bender-based opposition newspaper Novaya Gazeta has launched an initiative to build confidence between the two banks of the Dniester. According to the initiative, following the April 11, 2008 meeting between President Voronin and Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov, a forum of civil society organisations from both banks of the Dniester is needed to develop permanent contacts capable to enhance mutual confidence. Tiraspol’s mouthpiece Olvia-press published on November 20 an ample commentary on the initiative concerned, saying that civil society organisations from the right bank of the Dniester and a number of organisations from the left bank of the Dniester are funded by western institutions. For these reasons, Olvia-press concluded that the new initiative is an emanation of some western institutions which support the resumption of the “5+2” negotiation process. The derisive commentary and the distrusting attitude towards utility of this initiative are based on the fact that Russia has never supported the participation of civil society organisations in strengthening confidence.

Note by ADEPT: Starting 2005, Russia has funded, via structures controlled by former presidential advisor Modest Kolerov, the Proriv organisations in Transnistria, South Ossetia, and Abkhazia, which had other goals but strengthening confidence between the conflicting parties in the regions concerned, and the goal of Proriv in Crimea was to develop a conflict.

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