Transnistrian Conflict on January 19 – February 1, 2009

Assessment of developments in Transnistria settlement area

On January 26, President Vladimir Voronin convoked a meeting with the participation of Reintegration Minister Vasile Sova to assess progresses in the Transnistria settlement area. By describing evolutions as positive, he stated that “the situation relating to the Transnistrian problem, particularly in the Security Zone was under control in 2008.” As well, the following priorities for 2009 were established:

Speeding up the resumption of negotiations on definitive settlement of the Transnistrian conflict under the law on basic regulations of the special status of localities from Transnistria;
Encouraging a more active participation of the international community in the Transnistrian problem, especially in political dialogue;
Restarting as soon as possible the Transnistria settlement negotiations in the “5+2” format exclusively, as well as consultations of mediators and observers in the “2+1” format;
Continuing the work of EUBAM;
Implementing social-economic projects to improve the quality of life of people from the Transnistrian region by working out an action plan with an impact on social life.

The next day, President Voronin expressed optimism with the Transnistrian settlement at a press conference. He assured that the Transnistrian issue will be a priority in talks with his Russian counterpart Dmitri Medvedev soon.

On the other hand, the press service of Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov described the optimistic statements by Moldovan authorities as irresponsible and provocative, particularly as regards Russia’s support for the “package approach” by Moldovan authorities. In this respect, the press service recalled a number of promises and initiatives by Moldovan authorities which were not fulfilled or were used for propaganda-making purposes.

Transnistrian settlement consultations

During January 21–27, 2009, Reintegration Minister Vasile Sova had meetings with the special representative of Ukraine for the Transnistrian settlement, Mr. Viktor Krijanovski; Mr. Remi Duflot, referent for Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus within the Directorate-General for External Relations of the European Commission; the special envoy of the Russian Foreign Ministry, Mr. Valeri Nesteruskin; the head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova, Mr. Philip Remler. Talks focussed on the necessity:

To restart the “5+2” negotiation process;
To strengthen mutual confidence between Chisinau and Tiraspol;
To work out a special legal status for Transnistria within the “5+2” format exclusively, by respecting the sovereignty and territorial integrity of the Republic of Moldova;
To extend the EUBAM mandate with the purpose to consolidate security at the Moldovan-Ukrainian state border;
To demark the Transnistrian segment of the Moldova-Ukraine border, etc.

Cooperation between Moldovan, Ukrainian security services and EUBAM

On January 22, 2009, the director of the Information and Security Service (ISS) of Moldova, Mr. Artur Resetnicov, met the director-general of the Ukrainian Security Service, Mr. Valentin Nalivaychenko, and Mr. Ferenc Banfi, head of the European Union Border Assistance Mission (EUBAM) to Moldova and Ukraine. The meeting focussed on further actions aimed “to reduce security-related dangers at the Moldovan-Ukrainian border and create specialised groups to combat trafficking in human beings, drugs, weapons, wide-consumption products, etc., by experts of special services from both countries and EUBAM. In particular, the parties stressed the recent successful cooperation in combating an attempt to smuggle a very large quantity of cigarettes from Ukraine to the EU market via Moldova. This operation was done in October 2008, jointly with law bodies from EU member states, with Moldova and Ukraine filing criminal cases; this success prevented the loss of about 5 million Euros in taxes in EU.”

Participation of Transnistrians in parliamentary elections

Representatives of Transnistrian authorities have warned that they will not accept polling stations in Transnistrian region. As well, they promised not to obstruct holders of Moldovan citizenship to cast their ballots, but they will have to do this at special polling stations on the Moldova’s territory. At the same time, Transnistrian political commentators advise Tiraspol authorities to take short Chisinau and accept elections in the region with the purpose to influence Transnistria’s interest. That means support for a pro-Russia political force which hates the ruling party of Moldova.

In this context, a member of the Ukrainian Supreme Rada, Sergey Grinevetski, former governor of the Odessa region, has published a study in the magazine “Вестник Центра исследований южно-украинского пограничья” which also envisages an eventual massive participation of Transnistrian residents in Moldovan elections with the purpose to massively support political forces that do not warm the Transnistrian settlement, in order to obstruct the Chisinau-Tiraspol dialogue and strengthen Russia’s positions in the region. In this context, Mr. Grinevetki identifies five reasons which preclude the Transnistrian settlement:

The existence, both in Chisinau and Tiraspol, of authoritarian regimes which leaders hate each other and preclude the dialogue between parties;
The membership of Moldova and Transnistria to different cultural areas, having opposite integrationist aspirations;
The strongly differentiated structures of economies and economic regulations;
The collapse of agrarian sectors in Moldova and Transnistria, which seriously reduces the interest of cooperation, the least in the agro-food security sector;
The destruction of the common infrastructure, which was earlier linking the two banks of the Dniester.

Official media in Transnistria looking for and finding pretexts to undermine confidence

The forthcoming parliamentary elections in Moldova set for April 5, 2009 make Moldovan authorities and their propaganda display more insistently the optimism and “successes” in settling the Transnistrian conflict, while Tiraspol authorities and their propaganda reveal failures and developments capable to split:

After the tragic accident in January 2009, which killed a famous Moldovan poet, Grigore Vieru, many chat fans, Internet users proposed to re-name the Pushkin Street into Grigore Vieru street. This initiative was taken over by private media institutions, but representatives of main political parties in Moldova did not warm it. However, propaganda makers and official media from Transnistria concluded that discussing such an initiative has seriously hit the image of Moldova and the process of approaching the two banks was undermined, postponing perspectives to settle the conflict for a long time;
The cases of Burgugi and Pasat, persecution of some politicians in Moldova by authorities, and the recent public involvement of the Prosecutor-General’s Office and Interior Ministry in spreading allegations about the intention of certain Moldovan parliamentarians to assassinate their colleague, when versions are being elaborated and evidence is more than vague, makes the Transnistrian media and propagandists (enemies of strengthening the confidence between Chisinau and Tiraspol) argue why proposals by Chisinau should be ignored as unworthy of any confidence;
The hiding by Moldovan authorities of consequences of the world economic crisis on economic situation in country. In this regard, many statistics reveal that the economy of “the poorest country in Europe which is as developed as that of some African countries” is seriously deteriorating, so that the eventual reunification of Transnistria with Moldova makes no sense.

Impact of economic crisis on situation in the region

A newsletter by Transnistrian republican bank estimates that the world economic crisis has seriously hit all branches of Transnistrian economy. The metallurgical, cement and textile production, key export items have dropped by approximately 50 percent. As well, the crisis has seriously hit the engineering and electro-technical sector. Forecasts for first months of 2009 are pessimistic as well, as the industrial output is expected to continue dropping. In these circumstances, Transnistrian authorities have to keep sustaining people by subsidising expenditures for natural gas and electricity consumption. At present, people from the region pay only 1/5 of the gas cost and 1/3 of their electricity consumption, and the rest is covered from budgetary resources. This is done in spite of the fact that 60 percent of heating and electricity networks are decrepit.

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