Monitoring→Politics→Transnistrian Conflict

Efforts to resume “Five-Plus-Two” negotiations

• On February 1, 2008, Minister of Reintegration Vasilii Sova, the presidential advisor for political affairs, Mark Traciuk, and the head of the directorate for international agreements of the department for international law of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and European Integration, Dumitru Socolan, had consultations in Moscow with high-ranking officials of the Russian Federation participating in the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict, the deputy secretary of the Russian Security Council, Yuri Zubakov, ambassadors with special missions Valeri Keniaykin and Valeri Nesterushkin, and the deputy chairman of the second department for CIS member states, Nicolay Fomin. According to the Moldovan presidential press service, the consultations aimed to fortify the confidence measures between Chisinau and Tiraspol with the view to resume the “Five-Plus-Two” negotiations as soon as possible. Socolan’s participation in consultations raised suspicions of the Moldovan opposition, which said that secret documents on Transnistrian settlement are being prepared.

• While on a visit to Moscow on February 12–13, Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko agreed with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin “to intensify the diplomatic dialogue between the two parties, in order to reach an agreement regarding the settlement of the Transnistrian conflict.” They stressed the need of drafting Russian-Ukrainian initiatives aimed to relieve the “Five-Plus-Two” negotiation process. In this respect, the Russia-Ukraine Action Plan signed by the two presidents stipulates that experts from the two countries shall elaborate coherent approaches by 2009 in a move to settle the Transnistrian conflict. The following basic principles were established: the Transnistrian conflict shall be settled only on basis of respect for Moldova’s sovereignty and territorial integrity; Transnistria shall be awarded a special legal status. The fact that the two presidents discussed the Transnistrian conflict while tackling matters related to the Russian-Ukrainian relations means that neither Russia nor Ukraine want the “Kosovo precedent” to extend on Transnistria for national security reasons. This is a positive signal for Moldova, which discloses the bluffs from the past three years of a great regional power.

Could hostilities restart?

• In spite of optimistic statements by Moldovan authorities, Transnistrian leaders of the highest ranking deny any possibility to rapidly settle the conflict on basis of schemes elaborated by President Voronin. Such statements were regularly delivered in continuation by Transnistrian administration head Igor Smirnov, foreign minister Valerii Litskai, but the most interesting statement which runs counter Smirnov was delivered by speaker Evgheniy Shevchyuk, who stated to the Moscow-based magazine “Kommersant” that the secessionist region could hold a new referendum on Transnistria’s status and early parliamentary elections. Such a referendum would make sense if guarantors and mediators of the negotiation process accepted its results. Shevchyuk’s statement is based on his confidence that the results of an eventual referendum would favour the independence of Transnistria. Indeed, by delivering such a statement, Shevchyuk steps on the field that Smirnov had earlier used and held different kinds of referendums. Thus, Shevchyuk attracted the Transnistrian “expert community” which backed his idea. But Smirnov replied immediately. He said in an interview with the Russian newspaper “Profily” that he has plans to create a “ministry of territories” in order to recover localities which he thinks should be controlled by Transnistria but they are under the jurisdiction of Chisinau so far. The Bender-based newspaper “Novoye Vremya” supposes that the localities concerned are in the district of Dubasari on the left bank of the Dniester River controlled by Chisinau, suburbs of the Bender municipality and the village of Copanca. According to “Novoye Vremya”, there is no other way to “recover” the territories but the armed one, and it signalled the danger of a new war aimed to boost the rating of Smirnov versus Shevchyuk. Moldovan Minister of Reintegration Vasile Sova confirmed these concerns at a February 9 seminar themed “Transnistrian dialogues”.

• Representatives of the Ukrainian Border Guard Service have tried to stop the chairwoman of the Transnistrian parliamentary law commission, Galina Antiufeeva, to cross the Ukrainian territory. She was summoned to leave the train on Moscow-Chisinau route at the border with Ukraine. Following some clarifications, Antiufeeva was authorised to continue her way. In her turn, Antiufeeva considers that Ukrainian border guards have something against his husband Vladimir Antiufeev, security minister of Transnistria. On the other hand, there are opinions that the incident is a deliberative and very suggestive signal for Transnistrian leaders. In this respect, it was invoked the recommendation from the October 2007 European Parliament Resolution to limit the move of Transnistrian leaders for unwillingness to resume the negotiations, as well as the fact that Ukrainian authorities feel the danger of Transnistrian separatism for Ukraine.

Economic problems

• The dispute around the 2007 Transnistrian budget is not over. The Tiraspol leader vetoed 21 clauses and only seven of them have been settled after consultations, and the Supreme Soviet is expected to lift the veto for another 14. Smirnov is unsatisfied that a special fund was created and Transnistrian legislators have plans to fulfil their electoral promises by using it; also, he says that some budgetary categories limit the freedom of the executive subdivisions to do their work.

• Energy tariffs will grow proportionally with the rise of the Russian gas price. In 2007 Transnistria raised debts worth 202 million dollars for 1.41 billions cubic metres of gas. Now it owes 1.6 billion dollars to Gazprom. Starting 2008, Transnistria should pay 192.75 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres of gas, which is by 23 dollars more than in 2007. Consumers will cover all consumption costs. The gas price is expected to grow up to 257 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres by 2011. Transnistrian leader Smirnov and Kira Lukianova, member of the Russian State Duma, discussed the Transnistrian debt for Russian gas on February 4. Smirnov raised very curious and interesting pretensions towards Russia. He was irritated that Transnistria pays approximately 190 dollars per 1,000 cubic metres of gas but sells it to main consumers, Russian enterprises, in exchange for 100 dollars only. “It means that willing to help Russian enterprises, Transnistria has to work in its detriment, as the tariff difference becomes a foreign debt.” Smirnov did not explain why and who obliges Transnistria to work in own detriment, but he claims that he is the president of an “independent state”. Are these doubtful tariff manipulation schemes or a policy coordinated with Russian authorities? Smirnov hinted that he has repeatedly called upon Russian authorities to resolve this problem, but now he has to appeal to the State Duma, too. It is interesting if Moldovan authorities will react or not to elucidate the doubtful schemes, in particular after Smirnov said on different occasions that Transnistria’s debt for Russian gas is actually the debt of Moldova, since Moldova-Gaz signs the gas delivery contracts with Gazprom.

Social problems

• Transnistrian unionists have signalled a critical situation in the city of Dubasari because of low salaries of medical personnel, which earn less than the average monthly salary (approximately 140 dollars). There are 726 doctors and nurses in Dubasari, of which 96 are doctors. Nurses earn only approximately 70 dollars a month. The medical personnel are at the limit of subsistence as prices grow quickly. Doctors called on Transnistrian authorities but their problems were ignored.

• The Supreme Soviet decided to increase salaries of Transnistrian prosecutors who rank the 9^th place in the top of public institutions from the region as regards earnings. Thus, a prosecutor in Transnistria will earn now 375 dollars a month, while a district prosecutor will be paid 250 dollars. A recent survey conducted in Transnistria signalled a non-confidence towards the judiciary from the region (62 percent), which is regarded as the most corrupt institution.

Human rights in Transnistria

• Transnistrian minister of information and telecommunication Vladimir Belyaev has prohibited the weekly radio broadcast “Proriv”. Producers of the programme patronised by Transnistrian security ministry officer Dmitriy Soin said that the prohibition of airing access is a proof of complete strangulation of the freedom of expression in Transnistria. They accused Belyaev of imposing methods practised by Goebbels to direct the mass media, “affecting the new democratic image of Transnistria” this way. “Passionate” producers of this programme added that the hostile attitude towards them is a result of revealing of corrupt mechanisms.

• The death of two soldiers of the Transnistrian army in the last half a year was a reason for the Supreme Soviet to hear Transnistrian prosecutor Igor Railean. Of course, Transnistrian officials wanted to hide the causes of the two deaths and accuse the healthcare system for recruits. In their turn, healthcare system representatives indicated the shortage of funds to test the health of recruits, noting that the testing is primitive for this reason.

Election of Russian president in eastern districts of Moldova

• The “public council” of the Transnistrian security ministry is enhancing the activism of the 85,000 Russian citizens from Transnistria. The “public council” invites citizens to participate in the March 2, 2008 Russian presidential elections because “it is hard to overestimate Russia’s role in Transnistria’s fate.” Following the January 22 visit of President Voronin to Moscow, Russian authorities decided to reduce the number of polling stations in Transnistria from 24 bureaus opened for the December 2, 2007 parliamentary elections, down to 23. At the same time, Russian authorities sent a suggestive signal to Chisinau, rounding the Transnistrian constituency to the Kaliningrad one. As Moldovan authorities did not react to these actions, being probably satisfied that the number of polling stations in eastern districts of the country was reduced, President Putin accused the West of double standards and support for the Kosovo separatism, at the longest news conference on February 14, 2008.

Sources: www.nr2.ru, http://www.olvia.idknet.com, kommersant.ru

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