ADEPT | Gagauzia 2016 | Presidential 2016 | Elections 2015 | Bashkan 2015 | Gagauzia 2012 | Political Parties
Economic Policies on January 1–18, 2009
|
|
e-journal #130 |
Inflation and prices
Inflation for 2008 is lower than updated forecast…
According to the NBS data, average consumer prices decreased by 0.2 percent in December 2008, compared with November as a result of the decline in prices for manufactured goods by 1.3 percent and rise of tariffs for public services by 1.2 percent, while average retail food prices remained at the November level.
Prices for main food products have decreased in the period concerned, in particular, rice and vegetal oil by 6.1 percent, sugar by 2.2 percent, eggs by 1.1 percent, fruits by 0.5 percent (citric by 9.1 percent, apples by 3.3 percent), potatoes, meat and meat products by 0.3 percent each (inclusively beef by 2.1 percent, pork by 0.8 percent). According to estimates by specialists, the fall of food prices in the period concerned was particularly due to products from the new crop. Prices for manufactured goods have decreased as follows: fuels by 14.5 percent, bottled natural gas by 12.8 percent, coal by 3.9 percent, drugs by 0.6 percent, and building materials, TV sets, telephony and audiovisual appliances by 0.4 percent.
On the other hand, tariffs for public service have grown in December 2008, as follows: centralised heating supply for households by 32.2 percent, services by hotels and sanatoria by 2.4 percent. Prices for some food products have grown as follows: vegetables by 3.8 percent (tomatoes by 15.2 percent and cucumbers by 11.3 percent), honey by 2.2 percent and milk by 1.6 percent and cheese by 1.2 percent. Prices for fur coats and caps for children have grown by 4.4 percent in the heating season and winter footwear by 1.6 percent.
The cumulated inflation rate for 2008 (December 2008 compared with December 2007) was 7.3 percent (the inflation rate in December 2007 compared with December 2006 was 13.1 percent), which is lower than the updated forecast by authorities. However, many economists fear that the real rate is not the one given by official statistics. As regards the consumer basket, the inflation rate “is cheating” (without interpreting ad literam), given its seemingly faulty and incomplete structure. In particular, its structure determines an underrating of inflation — the share of bread products, for example, is almost equivalent to the share of costs for communal services, rent expenditures are underrated, while education-related expenditures (education, admission fees, etc.) are not covered, the rural inflation is not taken into account and many other methodological aspects may be raised.
External trade
Trade deficit keeps being on the rise…
Moldova’s trade deficit for January-November 2008 exceeded 3 billion dollars and rose by about 1 billion dollars (more than 46 percent), compared with the same period of 2007. In particular, exports turned over 1.4 billion dollars in January-November 2008, which is by 21.6 percent more than in the similar period of 2007. On the other hand, imports turned over about 4.5 billion dollars and rose by more than 37 percent compared with January-November 2007.
Exports of goods to EU member states were worth about 759 million dollars (+23.8 percent). Imports from EU accounted for nearly 1.96 billion dollars (by over 31 percent more than in January-November 2007). Moldova’s trade deficit with EU has reached about 1.2 billion dollars. Exports to CIS accounted for about 582 million dollars and increased by more than 16 percent. Imports of goods from CIS were worth about 1.57 billion dollars (by over 32 percent more than in January-November 2007). Moldova’s trade balance deficit with CIS has grown by 44.4 percent, up to about 988 million dollars.
Romania — key destination for Moldovan products…
Moldova recorded the highest trade balance deficit with Ukraine in January-November 2008 (more than 641 million dollars), followed by China — 290 million dollars, Germany about 279 million dollars, Russia more than 280 million dollars, Romania 251 million dollars etc. In this context, exports to Romania have grown by about 66 percent, compared with January-November 2007, up to 315 million dollars. Thus, Romania’s share in Moldovan exports has increased from 15.7 percent in 11 months of 2007 up to 21.2 percent in January-November 2008. At the same time, imports from Romania have increased by 43 percent in the period concerned, up to 566 million dollars. Following Romania among Moldova’s export partners is Russia with 20.1 percent of all exports (by over 297 million dollars or about 41 percent more than in January-November 2007).
Labour market
Salary rises at the end of the year…
According to official statistics, the average monthly salary in national economy was about 2,490 lei in January-November 2008, which is by 24 percent more than in the similar period of 2007. The real salary in the same period has increased by 9 percent. The average salary in budgetary sector was 1,940 lei and rose by 21 percent, while the average salary in real sector of economy exceeded 2,775 lei and increased by 25 percent, compared with the same period of 2007.
An employee earned about 2,638 lei on average in November. In comparison with November 2007, the average wage has increased by 18 percent and the real salary by 9 percent. The average salary in budgetary sector amounted to 2,166 lei and rose by 21 percent, compared with the similar period of 2007. The average salary in real sector accounted for 2,883 lei and increased by 17 percent compared with the same period of 2007.
Minimum existence…
The minimum existence in the 3rd quarter of 2008 was about 1,246 lei per person. The value of the minimum existence is determined by both prices for food products covered by consumer basket and share of expenditures for the manufactured basket (cost of manufactured goods and services), which is established on the basis of the real structure of consumer expenses accordingly to data of the Household Budgets Research. The evolution of the minimum existence in the first three quarters of 2008 has registered trends similar to last year, with maximum values being recorded in the 2nd trimester (1,341.9 lei) and minimum in the 3rd quarter (1,245.8 lei). This decrease of the minimum existence in the 3rd quarter was particularly due to the fall of prices for seasonal products in the period concerned. Therefore, the minimum existence in the 3rd quarter has decreased by 7.2 percent compared with the 2nd trimester and 5.3 percent compared with the 1st quarter.
The minimum existence in urban areas was over 1,352 lei, compared with 1,171 lei in rural areas, which is a difference of over 181 lei (15.5 percent) due to the different structure of consumer expenditures for people from cities and villages. Thus, the manufactured basket in urban areas covered 47 percent on average of the value of minimum existence, while in rural areas it was over 37 percent (this indicator on country is more than 42 percent). The dearest minimum existence on categories of population was recorded for employable people, especially men — about 1,394 lei. Maintaining a child costs about 1,163 lei a month and this indicator depends on the child’s age, from 460.7 lei for a baby up to 1,291.3 lei for a child between 7–16 years old. The minimum existence for retirees was 1,061.1 lei, which is 85.2 percent of the average value for total population.
| Overall | Urban | Rural | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total population | 1245,8 | 1352,2 | 1171,1 |
| Employable people | 1315,6 | 1407,3 | 1239,0 |
| Employable men | 1393,8 | 1484,4 | 1319,4 |
| Employable women | 1234,7 | 1333,3 | 1151,0 |
| Retirees | 1061,1 | 1139,3 | 1016,4 |
| Children | 1163,0 | 1289,5 | 1094,6 |
| Inclusively: | |||
| Below 1 year old | 460,7 | 511,4 | 431,9 |
| 1–6 years old | 998,3 | 1108,5 | 936,1 |
| 7–16 years old | 1291,3 | 1437,6 | 1214,0 |
According to findings of the Household Budgets Research, available average monthly incomes per person accounted for 1,221.4 lei in the 3rd quarter of 2008, which is by 14.5 percent more than in the 3rd trimester of 2007. At the same time, this indicator has grown by 2.3 percent in real terms (adjusted to inflation rate). Available revenues of people in the 3rd quarter of 2008 covered 98 percent the average value of the minimum existence. The average medium pension established on October 1, 2008 was 644.4 lei or by 19.5 percent more compared with the same period of 2007, covering only 60 percent of the minimum of existence of retirees.
| 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Correlation between average monthly incomes per person and average value of the minimum existence, in percent | 93,1 | 104,0 | 98,0 |
| Correlation between average monthly pension and minimum existence for retirees, in percent | 63,5 | 61,1 | 60,7 |
| Correlation between average monthly wage and minimum existence for employable population | 2,1 | 2,0 | 2,0 |
The average employee salary in the economy was about 2,602 lei in the 3rd quarter of 2008, which is by nearly 22 percent more than in the similar period of 2007, covering about twice the minimum existence for employable people.
Archive
2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 |
