Transnistrian Conflict on February 2–14, 2009

| e-journal #132 |

OSCE’s efforts to actuate Transnistrian settlement

On February 5, 2009, the head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova, Philip Remler, had a meeting with Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov in Tiraspol. Mr. Remler stated that a representative of the Czech OSCE Chairmanship will visit the Republic of Moldova and the Transnistrian region in the second half of February to collect facts about the state of things in the Transnistrian settlement process. The visit will follow a recent visit to Moldova by a delegation made of representatives of Italy and Turkey headed by OSCE Parliamentary Assembly President Joao Soares. The delegation visited the Transnistrian region as well and met there representatives of local authorities to collect facts about the state of things on the scene. According to Mr. Joao Soares, the OSCE made the conclusion that there are not premises of concern regarding an eventual military confrontation between the parties, due to permanent consultations aimed at building reciprocal confidence.
The OSCE Mission in Chisinau has hosted a meeting of economic expert groups on behalf of Chisinau and Tiraspol. The Transnistrian side was interested in “reduction of taxes and pressures by Moldova, avoiding political matters.” As well, Transnistrian authorities are interested in healthcare issues, especially joint projects on endowment of the blood transfusion centre in Tiraspol, prevention of tuberculosis and AIDS. A Transnistria-based hospital for children is expected to be endowed with modern equipment from budgetary funds of Moldova (approximately 500,000 Euros).

Prospects to resume the negotiation process

During the February 5, 2009 meeting between the head of the OSCE Mission to Moldova, Philip Ramler, and Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov, the latter said that the break in the negotiation process is linked to the electoral campaign in the Republic of Moldova. According to Smirnov, talks on OSCE’s support to Moldova’s Transnistrian settlement initiatives are part of the propagandistic arsenal. Transnistria seeks the settlement of the conflict on the basis of 80 documents signed by the two parties, having guarantors and mediators Russia, Ukraine and OSCE. “The Republic of Moldova is permanently rubbing us and this is everything we have at present.” However, Smirnov was ready to support confidence-building measures between the two parties via specialised working groups. Speaking about situation in the “security zone”, Smirnov said that Moldovan authorities have unilaterally refused in 2004 any cooperation between Moldovan and Transnistrian police forces.
Speaking about the eventual meeting with President Voronin set for March, Smirnov said that he is not sure that it will take place. He assured that he supports the continuation of consultations, as “Tiraspol fulfils the promises made in front of Russia to hold such consultations,” though Moldovan authorities are not constructive. “We have orally agreed to meet in March, as written accords are not respected. Transnistria is the only place for this meeting — either in Tiraspol, Bender or Dubasari, where the recognised state of Moldova killed our citizens. We did not assault Bessarabia. We defended ourselves. And we will negotiate our territory only. This is the historical truth… Negotiations with the Republic of Moldova will develop on the basis of results of the 2006 referendum, at which 98 percent of participants chose the development besides Russia.”
While Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov was expected in Chisinau, the Russian Foreign Ministry has made public its visions regarding conditions to settle the Transnistrian conflict: equal rights to the parties — Chisinau and Tiraspol; agreement to give up unilateral solutions and other pressing measures; the necessity to settle all controversial issues through peaceful and political means exclusively shall help restore confidence in the region and make both sides take concrete actions. This approach makes useless and even detrimental the Voronin-Smirnov meeting scheduled before elections.

Transnistrian authorities accuse Moldova, gratify Russia for its support

The administration of the Transnistrian Chamber of Commerce has accused Moldovan authorities of misinforming the CIS public opinion that it is allegedly assisting Transnistria. Yuri Ganin, deputy chairman of the Chamber of Commerce, said that the Republic of Moldova introduced a blockade on Transnistria in 2001 and hardened it after 2006. According to Ganin, Transnistrian exporters earned approximately 19 million dollars annually in 2007 and 2008 due to trade preferences granted by Moldova. But all railway communications of Transnistria are operated via the northern region of Moldova following 2006, so that exporters paid approximately 20 million dollars and lost about 5 million dollars, as Moldovan authorities refused services of Transnistrian motor carriers. Even more, Transnistrian exporters pay about 3 million dollars a year to Moldova for customs services. A more detailed calculation would prove that Transnistria would lose 35 million dollars a year, an amount which exceeds approximately twofold the benefits from Moldova’s preferences. The Republic of Moldova is an extortionist and mediator in Transnistria’s commercial relations with EU.
According to the administration of the Transnistrian Railway Company (CFT), Moldovan authorities oppose to the resumption of railway traffic in Transnistria. Thus, the administration of the Railway Company of Moldova (CFM) insists on resumption of the traffic and cooperation with CFT accordingly to unacceptable conditions: the return of 13 engines and 297 trucks held at the Bender station by Transnistrians; convoying of trains by Moldovan transport police; controlling of passenger trains crossing the Transnistrian border by CFM personnel. After the railway traffic via Transnistria was ceased in March 2006, being described as an element of the blockade on the secessionist region, the circulation of trains was resumed on the “Chisinau-Moscow” route only, following the signing of an agreement in this respect between Moldova and Ukraine and Russia in December 2006. So far, there is no railway connection via Transnistria on Chisinau-Odessa, Chisinau-Sankt Petersburg, Chisinau-Minsk, Chisinau-Adler; Chisinau-Simferopol, Chisinau-Murmansk itineraries.
Transnistrian deputy president Alexand Koroliov has stated in an interview with the Russian-language service of the radio station BBC that Transnistria-based economic agents suffer serious losses after the new customs regulations were introduced in March 2006. He exampled that Moldova is assisted by European and international organisations, but it does not share the aid with Transnistria, and the latter does not receive any aid from Moldova and faces only obstacles from this side. In reply, the Reintegration Ministry of Moldova has released a statement refuting declarations by the Transnistrian official and stressing that the Moldovan Government along with international institutions provided assistance worth about 40 million dollars to Transnistria in 2006–2008. In addition, the Government extends its national programmes on Transnistria as well, particularly in areas of economic, social development, healthcare, culture, humanitarian sector, etc.
The Russian Federation has decided again to provide a “fraternal” financial aid to Transnistria. The assistance is a reaction to an appeal by the Tiraspol Supreme Soviet. This time, 40 million dollars will be transferred to Transnistria and this amount is 1.5-fold larger than the aid provided last year — 27.2 million dollars. Thus, pensions of Transnistrian retirees will be increased by 85 Transnistrian roubles (the equivalent to 15 dollars). According to data provided by the pension fund of Transnistria, the medium pension in the region is 313 roubles (about 36 dollars), which covers approximately 38.6 percent of the minimum consumer basket for retirees. Retirees count for ? of the Transnistrian population or 134,500 people.
In the context of facts above, it is worth noting that Transnistrian authorities are implementing a programme on harmonisation of Transnistrian legislation to Russian laws. It stipulates the revision of at least 100 normative acts, and this is operated, in particular, by the Transnistrian justice ministry. Priority is given to fiscal, budgetary, arbitrage laws etc. The legislative harmonisation process is expected to be over by 2010.

Effects of international economic crisis on Transnistria

While on a visit to Moscow, Transnistrian leader Igor Smirniov discussed with journalists on February 12. He estimated the situation in Transnistria, describing it as difficult but controllable due to compensations paid from budgetary resources with the social support of people. He noted that despite the international crisis, “living standards in Transnistria did not worsen at least. Major enterprises have operated; the average wage in the region was 244 dollars.” Smirnov gratified Russia for the humanitarian and financial support provided to Transnistria, but hinted that Russia is obliged to help Transnistria, as 125,000 residents of the secessionist region hold Russian passports, 15,000 are about to receive them and another 25,000 are issuing necessary acts to apply for the Russian citizenship. Smirnov added that Transnistrian residents “have a Russian mentality, unlike Moldovans who have a Bessarabian mentality.”
According to accounts by the Reintegration Ministry of Moldova, exports from Transnistria decreased by 47.3 percent in January 2009, compared with the same month of 2008. In January 2009, exports by 35 Transnistria-based economic agents were worth 31.4 million dollars. Exports by metallurgical industry have fallen by 54 percent; light industry by 19 percent; engineering industry by 57.1 percent; spirits by 71.4 percent. Supplies of cement products were ceased completely. To note that 63.5 percent of Transnistrian exports go to EU member states and 14.7 percent to CIS. In January, electricity export, 84.9 percent of supplies by light industry and 47.5 percent of exports by metallurgical plants went to EU. Imports from Transnistria declined by 59.7 percent in January 2009, compared with the similar period of 2008, down to 2.9 million dollars.

Priorities of Transnistria’s foreign policy

On various occasions, Transnistrian foreign minister Vladimir Yastrebciak along with his deputy Serghey Simonenco has explained priorities of the foreign policy of the Tiraspol regime to the international media:

Transnistria does not have plans to reintegrate into the Republic of Moldova;
The recognition of independence of South Ossetia and Abkhazia, which are part of the Union for Democracy and People’s Rights along with Transnistria, encourages the independence-seeking claims of Transnistria, since conflicts in all three regions had similar sources and, therefore, final solutions shall be similar as well;
The EU and the U.S shall act in the limits of their status of observers and negotiations shall be held between Chisinau and Tiraspol;
Relations with Russia and Ukraine have a strategic importance to Transnistria. Although Ukraine calls for the conflict resolution in the “5+2” format while Russia focuses on the bilateral dialogue between the parties, both guarantees call for equality of the conflicting sides;
The “5+2” negotiation process is consultative and its importance should not be exaggerated;
The Kremlin authorities will keep facilitating the awarding of Russian citizenship to Transnistrian residents and the Tiraspol administration will insist more on opening of Russian consulates in the region;
Transnistrian authorities will keep doing their best for the international recognition of documents issued to citizens. In this respect, there are agreements signed by President Voronin and Igor Smirnov in May 2001, but Moldovan authorities ignore them;
No special efforts are expected in the Transnistrian settlement process in the near future, particularly because of the parliamentary elections in Moldova;
Consultations of expert groups on concrete issues such as external economic activity, healthcare will be a priority in the next period.

Viewpoint of former Romanian foreign minister Adrian Cioroianu

Russian and Transnistrian media outlets have widely commented the interview with former Romanian foreign minister Adrian Cioroianu published by the magazine Foreign Policy Romania. The former minister told his viewpoint about the Transnistrian settlement:

The Moldovan presidential administration is ready to give green light to the “Russian scenario” on settlement of the Transnistrian conflict. But the long-term interests of Chisinau contravene to such a resolution;
The Transnistrian conflict is the most efficient lever of Russia to maintain the Republic of Moldova in its area of influence. Formally maintaining Transnistria within borders of the Republic of Moldova is the best guarantee that it will not escape from Russia’s interests;
Russia will keep checking the Chisinau administration via Transnistria, regardless of its colour in future;
Moscow was never interested in the definitive resolution of the conflict, as tensions between the two banks of the Dniester River legalise its military presence in the region and this suits it;
The Transnistrian regime is useful to Moscow inclusively in Russia’s relations with Ukraine;
A solution for the Republic of Moldova would be to temporarily cut up Transnistria and keep it under a protectorship guaranteed by an international mandate, since the Republic of Moldova cannot guarantee alone the respect for its legal norms, democratisation and demilitarisation of the region;
The cutting up would allow Moldova to focus on own European project, and Transnistria would have time to make a decision on own future.

Note by ADEPT: The solution to temporarily cut up Transnistria from the Republic of Moldova without recognising its independence was proposed in 2002 by Oleg Serebrian, then chairman of the Social Liberal Party (PSL). A similar solution was recommended in October 2007 by former presidential adviser Segiu Mocanu, who also insisted on the withdrawal of the border over the Dniester.

MGB protects regime against “chromatic revolution”

The investigative department of the Transnistrian security minister (MGB) has opened criminal charges against Sergei Kolerov, editor of the Russian website www.regnum.ru. The penal case investigates the article “Sindromul Stockholm — consecintele regionale a «razboiului gazelor» dintre Rusia si Ucraina” (Stockholm syndrome — regional consequences of the “gas war” between Russia and UkraineRU). The writer did not like the policy of Transnistrian authorities aimed to balance influences and interests of Russia and Ukraine in the region. Kolerov said that since Russia helps Transnistria on diverse ways, the foreign policy of the secessionist region should be unequivocally pro-Russia; otherwise the Transnistrian governing should be changed on a “revolutionary” way inclusively. In this regard, the MGB accused Kolerov of calling for subversion of the state authority in Transnistria. On February 10, MGB officers searched the former regional editorial office of REGNUM in Tiraspol, without taking into account the fact that the agency has moved long ago, and seized information carriers of the magazine Partner published by the Transnistrian Chamber of Commerce. Transnistrian leader Igor Smirnov commented this case, saying that he does not get involved in investigations, but noted that he received the owner of this website, Modest Kolerov, in Tiraspol some years ago. Korolev was then the adviser of President Vladimir Putin “for relations with compatriots”. According to Smirnov “nobody has ever felt the effects of his activity, but now Kolerov instigates to a chromatic revolution.” Given these facts, it is worth to note that the Transnistrian Republican Bank has taken revenge against REGNUM by refusing to provide information about remittances by Transnistrian guest workers for 2008.

Note by ADEPT: Smirnov is wrong when he claims that Korolev’s activity did not have any impact. The network of PRORIV movements from Transnistria, Crimea, Ossetia and Abkhazia is the masterpiece of Kolerov. These movements were created in 2005, after the series of “chromatic revolutions” in the CIS area, and aimed to oppose to the wave generated by “chromatic revolutions” by promoting pro-Russia actions. The destiny’s irony is that initiators of movements against chromatic revolutions threaten to hold an eventual chromatic revolution. Why would not remember the saying “digging for serendipity!”

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